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9

Accrual

5yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 76

Ripon · Napoleons Casino And Restaurant Leeds Handicap · 5f

#5

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Capitalised on falling mark when won at Thirsk in August (second and third won next time) on stable debut but has had mixed results since. Respectable fifth of 12 at Beverley 10 days ago and he still looks well treated on old form if building on that.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength31%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Wolverhampton 07/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 88 · 6f20y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/03/2026 · OR 88 par7/033OR 884 @ Wolverhampton 17/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 86 · 5f21y Std 136 · below its mark17/04/2026 · OR 86 par4 @ Haydock 21/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 84 · 5f Sft 134 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 84 par21/054OR 843 @ Chester 13/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 82 · 6f17y Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Lingfield 06/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 78 · 5f6y Std 135 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 78 par6/074OR 784 @ Thirsk 01/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 75 · 5f Goo 135 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Thirsk 14/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 79 · 5f Goo 134 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 79 par14/084OR 794 @ Haydock 04/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 79 · 5f Hvy 137 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Beverley 16/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 78 · 5f Goo 136 · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 78 par16/094OR 78projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Beverley45th5th0
2026-09-04Haydock47th7th0
2026-08-14Thirsk43rd3rd0
2026-08-01Thirsk41st1st0
2026-07-06Lingfield45th5th0
2026-06-13Chester310th9th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0313/0614/0816/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength87%

Delivery trend +0.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/03/20265th18/15%50%+0.45
17/04/20265th15/261%20%-0.41
21/05/20263rd12/137%60%+0.23
13/06/202610th25/10%0%0.00
06/07/20265th4/179%50%-0.29
01/08/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
14/08/20263rd10/382%75%-0.07
04/09/20267th10/147%40%-0.07
16/09/20265th11/142%64%+0.22