14
Canaria Queen
6yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 64
Ripon · Napoleons Casino And Restaurant Leeds Handicap · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Redcar | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-31 | Ripon | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-08-26 | Catterick | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Catterick | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Thirsk | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Thirsk | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 13-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 17/06/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 86% | +0.44 |
| 01/08/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 36% | -0.06 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 90% | +0.24 |
| 26/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 31/08/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 15/09/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |