IvyArcIvyArc
10

Emerald Harmony

5yo Mare · 9-7 · OR 75

Ripon · Napoleons Casino And Restaurant Leeds Handicap · 5f

#13

Rank

Odds

18/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★ Timeform

Commentary

In good form in June/July, winning at Thirsk prior to second at Doncaster and third at York but has gone off the boil since and needs to bounce back.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Beverley 04/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 77 · 5f Goo 127 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 77 par4/054OR 774 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 17 · OR 77 · 5f Goo 132 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Nottingham 31/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 76 · 5f8y Goo 133 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 76 par31/054OR 765 @ Thirsk 16/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 74 · 5f Goo 135 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 74 par3 @ Doncaster 03/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 78 · 5f3y GF 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 78 par3/073OR 784 @ York 10/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 78 · 5f Goo 133 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 17 · OR 78 · 5f Goo 164 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 78 par25/074OR 784 @ Thirsk 14/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 78 · 5f Goo 133 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Doncaster 13/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 77 · 5f3y Gd 135 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 77 par13/094OR 77projClass-projected finish: 8th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Doncaster47th7th0
2026-08-14Thirsk46th6th0
2026-07-25York46th6th0
2026-07-10York43rd3rd0
2026-07-03Doncaster32nd1st+1
2026-06-16Thirsk51st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0516/0625/0713/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 10-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength9%

Delivery trend -6.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/05/20263rd14/126%67%+0.40
16/05/202610th14/126%44%+0.17
31/05/20263rd4/179%67%-0.12
16/06/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
03/07/20262nd9/276%83%+0.07
10/07/20263rd9/276%82%+0.06
25/07/20266th6/168%69%+0.00
14/08/20266th5/174%38%-0.36
13/09/20267th10/147%33%-0.14