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12

Emperor Caradoc

7yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 70

Ripon · Napoleons Casino And Restaurant Leeds Handicap · 5f

#11

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Excused latest run when going without usual headgear. He's 4 lb below last winning mark so could bounce back with cheekpieces reapplied, but 6f probably suits him better.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Thirsk 02/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 74 · 6f Goo 129 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 74 par2/054OR 745 @ Leicester 09/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 77 · 6f Goo 137 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Pontefract 02/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 77 · 6f Goo 133 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 77 par2/064OR 775 @ Thirsk 16/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 75 · 6f Goo 142 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 75 par5 @ Nottingham 04/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 74 · 6f18y Goo 141 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 74 par4/075OR 745 @ Nottingham 21/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 75 · 6f18y Goo 140 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Pontefract 05/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 75 · 6f Goo 130 · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 75 par5/084OR 754 @ Ripon 15/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 20 · OR 74 · 6f Goo 132 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 74 par4 @ Beverley 16/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 72 · 5f Goo 130 · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 72 par16/094OR 72projClass-projected finish: 11th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Beverley410th10th0
2026-08-15Ripon410th10th0
2026-08-05Pontefract44th4th0
2026-07-21Nottingham54th5th−1
2026-07-04Nottingham52nd3rd−1
2026-06-16Thirsk56th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0516/065/0816/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 2-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength37%

Delivery trend +1.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/05/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
09/05/20263rd9/591%50%-0.41
02/06/20265th14/126%50%+0.24
16/06/20266th6/168%50%-0.18
04/07/20262nd7/491%83%-0.07
21/07/20264th11/486%57%-0.28
05/08/20264th20/10%57%+0.57
15/08/202610th25/10%53%+0.53
16/09/202610th33/10%18%+0.18