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Equity Law

5yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 80

Ripon · Napoleons Casino And Restaurant Leeds Handicap · 5f

#6

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Recorded back-to-back wins for the first time in June and August, though possibly aided by racing against the rail for the latter. Found hat-trick beyond him at Doncaster recently and more required here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Musselburgh 12/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 17 · OR 77 · 5f1y Goo 133 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 77 par12/044OR 772 @ Ripon 25/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 76 · 5f Goo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 76 par3 @ Thirsk 02/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 75 · 5f Goo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 75 par2/053OR 754 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 17 · OR 75 · 5f Goo 130 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Thirsk 31/05/2026 · Pos 15th of 17 · OR 74 · 5f Goo 124 · below its mark31/05/2026 · OR 74 par31/054OR 745 @ Catterick 11/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 74 · 5f GS 135 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 74 par4 @ Pontefract 21/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 72 · 5f3y Goo 127 · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 72 par21/064OR 724 @ Thirsk 14/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 75 · 5f Goo 130 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 75 par3 @ Doncaster 13/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 81 · 5f3y Gd 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 81 par13/093OR 81projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Doncaster38th7th+1
2026-08-14Thirsk41st1st0
2026-06-21Pontefract41st1st0
2026-06-11Catterick52nd3rd−1
2026-05-31Thirsk415th15th0
2026-05-16Thirsk46th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0416/0521/0613/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength98%

Delivery trend +1.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/04/20266th25/10%69%+0.69
25/04/20263rd12/137%71%+0.35
02/05/20263rd17/255%78%+0.23
16/05/20266th5/174%69%-0.05
31/05/202615th9/153%13%-0.40
11/06/20262nd10/382%83%+0.01
21/06/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
14/08/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
13/09/20268th33/10%53%+0.53