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Hiya Maite

8yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 80

Ripon · Napoleons Casino And Restaurant Leeds Handicap · 5f

#7

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Speedy sort who has been raced sparingly this year but ran well when third of 10 in a handicap at Doncaster 13 days ago after further 12 weeks off. Not won since 2024 but he's well treated if backing up recent effort.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength58%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Doncaster 16/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 83 · 5f3y Goo 138 · beat its mark16/08/2025 · OR 83 par16/084OR 833 @ Doncaster 14/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 85 · 5f3y Sft 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/09/2025 · OR 85 par4 @ Leicester 07/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 83 · 5f GS 133 · beat its mark07/10/2025 · OR 83 par7/104OR 832 @ Catterick 18/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 83 · 5f Goo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 83 par3 @ Southwell 31/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 89 · 6f16y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/10/2025 · OR 89 par31/103OR 894 @ Southwell 28/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 85 · 4f214y Std 135 · beat its mark28/12/2025 · OR 85 par4 @ Southwell 04/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 85 · 4f214y Std 135 · beat its mark04/01/2026 · OR 85 par4/014OR 854 @ Pontefract 21/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 81 · 5f3y Goo 136 · below its mark21/06/2026 · OR 81 par4 @ Doncaster 13/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 79 · 5f3y Gd 137 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 79 par13/094OR 79projClass-projected finish: 4th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Doncaster43rd3rd0
2026-06-21Pontefract47th7th0
2026-01-04Southwell44th4th0
2025-12-28Southwell42nd2nd0
2025-10-31Southwell36th5th+1
2025-10-18Catterick26th4th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0818/104/0113/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 2-11 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength56%

Delivery trend -2.1% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/08/20252nd85/4089%75%-0.14
14/09/20256th16/116%58%+0.43
07/10/20252nd8/158%89%+0.31
18/10/20256th11/271%50%-0.21
31/10/20256th14/126%58%+0.32
28/12/20252nd15/890%88%-0.03
04/01/20264th5/287%63%-0.24
21/06/20267th11/142%25%-0.17
13/09/20263rd17/255%78%+0.23