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15

Intervention

9yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 63

Ripon · Napoleons Casino And Restaurant Leeds Handicap · 5f

#10

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Revitalised by the refitting of the hood when third of 10 over 7f at Beverley last time, looking unlucky not to finish closer and definitely of interest from much-reduced mark, but now drops back to 5f and there may be more suitable opportunities for him over the next few months.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.5 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ripon 16/04/2026 · Pos 14th of 16 · OR 80 · 6f GS 130 · below its mark16/04/2026 · OR 80 par16/044OR 803 @ Nottingham 26/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 78 · 5f8y Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Chester 08/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 78 · 6f17y Goo 131 · below its mark08/05/2026 · OR 78 par8/054OR 784 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 16th of 20 · OR 76 · 6f Goo 131 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 76 par3 @ Doncaster 06/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 74 · 5f3y GF 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 74 par6/063OR 745 @ Doncaster 14/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 71 · 7f6y Goo 131 · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Chester 11/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 69 · 5f15y Goo 134 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 69 par11/075OR 694 @ York 24/07/2026 · Pos 15th of 18 · OR 67 · 7f Goo 122 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 67 par4 @ Beverley 12/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 64 · 7f75y Goo 126 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 64 par12/084OR 64projClass-projected finish: 9th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-12Beverley43rd3rd0
2026-07-24York415th15th0
2026-07-11Chester57th8th−1
2026-06-14Doncaster57th8th−1
2026-06-06Doncaster38th7th+1
2026-05-23York416th16th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0423/0511/0712/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength60%

Delivery trend +4.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/04/202614th20/10%13%+0.13
26/04/20264th12/137%67%+0.30
08/05/202610th40/10%18%+0.18
23/05/202616th50/10%21%+0.21
06/06/20268th25/10%13%+0.13
14/06/20267th20/10%45%+0.45
11/07/20267th28/10%40%+0.40
24/07/202615th40/10%18%+0.18
12/08/20263rd33/10%78%+0.78