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13

Mark's Choice

10yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 69

Ripon · Napoleons Casino And Restaurant Leeds Handicap · 5f

#2

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

11%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Veteran course specialist with 10 course wins including this race last year from 3 lb lower mark. Looked back in good form when second of 20 over 6f here in August and is excused latest effort when fluffing the start. Hard to rule out at this track.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength40%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ripon 27/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 66 · 5f Goo 124 · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 66 par27/094OR 665 @ Thirsk 10/04/2026 · Pos 15th of 15 · OR 75 · 6f Gd 140 · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 75 par5 @ Ripon 08/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 73 · 5f Gd 134 · below its mark08/05/2026 · OR 73 par8/055OR 735 @ Catterick 30/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 71 · 5f212y GF 132 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Ripon 17/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 70 · 6f Gd 137 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 70 par17/065OR 704 @ Ripon 06/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 69 · 5f Goo 129 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Doncaster 01/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 69 · 6f2y GF 136 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 69 par1/085OR 694 @ Ripon 15/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 20 · OR 67 · 6f Goo 125 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Ripon 31/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 70 · 5f Sft 135 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 70 par31/085OR 70projClass-projected finish: 10th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Ripon57th8th−1
2026-08-15Ripon42nd2nd0
2026-08-01Doncaster56th7th−1
2026-07-06Ripon43rd3rd0
2026-06-17Ripon54th5th−1
2026-05-30Catterick52nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0930/051/0831/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength47%

Delivery trend +0.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/09/20251st15/261%100%+0.39
10/04/202615th22/10%0%0.00
08/05/20266th9/276%29%-0.48
30/05/20262nd7/163%80%+0.17
17/06/20264th17/255%40%-0.15
06/07/20263rd11/142%75%+0.33
01/08/20266th18/15%29%+0.23
15/08/20262nd16/116%95%+0.79
31/08/20267th4/179%25%-0.54