11
Our Absent Friends
8yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 74
Ripon · Napoleons Casino And Restaurant Leeds Handicap · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength27%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Catterick | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-31 | Ripon | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-26 | Catterick | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Catterick | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-14 | Thirsk | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Catterick | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 5-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength34%
Delivery trend +4.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 05/07/2026 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 13/07/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 15/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 14/08/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 26/08/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 43% | -0.40 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 08/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |