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Tiva

4yo Filly · 10-3 · OR 85

Ripon · Napoleons Casino And Restaurant Leeds Handicap · 5f

#1

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

80%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

At the top of her game and has won 2 of last 3 starts, including for this claimer at Doncaster 13 days ago. Returns to Ripon where she has a C&D win to her name and looks sure to go well from 3 lb higher mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Ripon 25/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 84 · 5f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 84 par25/042OR 844 @ Hamilton 27/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 82 · 5f7y Goo 137 · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Musselburgh 05/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 82 · 5f1y Gd 137 · below its mark05/06/2026 · OR 82 par5/064OR 824 @ Nottingham 20/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 81 · 5f8y Goo 138 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 81 par4 @ Beverley 03/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 80 · 5f Goo 134 · below its mark03/07/2026 · OR 80 par3/074OR 804 @ Thirsk 01/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 79 · 5f Goo 139 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Musselburgh 07/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 79 · 5f1y Gd 137 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 79 par7/084OR 794 @ Newmarket 22/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 82 · 5f Gd 142 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Doncaster 13/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 82 · 5f3y Gd 140 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 82 par13/094OR 82projClass-projected finish: 1st of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Doncaster41st1st0
2026-08-22Newmarket44th4th0
2026-08-07Musselburgh41st1st0
2026-08-01Thirsk43rd3rd0
2026-07-03Beverley46th6th0
2026-06-20Nottingham44th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0420/067/0813/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength80%

Delivery trend +3.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/04/20265th13/266%43%-0.23
27/05/20262nd18/581%80%-0.01
05/06/20265th13/266%33%-0.32
20/06/20264th5/174%40%-0.34
03/07/20266th11/271%29%-0.42
01/08/20263rd8/158%82%+0.24
07/08/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
22/08/20264th9/488%50%-0.38
13/09/20261st10/382%100%+0.18