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10

Beaujolais Nouveau

4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 85

Ripon · Ripon Cathedral City Of The Dales Handicap · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

41%

Place Prob

32%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won over C&D in May in first-time cheekpieces and ran well when fourth at Goodwood in July. Out of depth when last of 8 over 5f in a listed race at Beverley in visor last time and should find this company more realistic with cheekpieces back on and returned to 6f.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Ripon 27/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 87 · 6f Goo 127 · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 87 par27/092OR 87C1 @ ParisLongchamp 19/10/2025 · Pos 14th of 18 · OR 87 · 6f211y GS 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/10/2025 · OR 87 par4 @ Thirsk 18/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 85 · 7f Goo 135 · below its mark18/04/2026 · OR 85 par18/044OR 854 @ Southwell 30/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 82 · 6f16y Std 134 · below its mark30/04/2026 · OR 82 par3 @ Ripon 17/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 80 · 6f Goo 136 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 80 par17/053OR 802 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 87 · 6f Gd 137 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 87 par2 @ Pontefract 07/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 87 · 6f Goo 125 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 87 par7/072OR 873 @ Goodwood 28/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 20 · OR 86 · 6f Goo 129 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 86 par1 @ Beverley 30/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 85 · 5f Hvy 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 85 par30/081OR 85projClass-projected finish: 10th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Beverley18th7th+1
2026-07-28Goodwood34th5th−1
2026-07-07Pontefract24th4th0
2026-06-12York25th5th0
2026-05-17Ripon31st2nd−1
2026-04-30Southwell45th7th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0930/047/0730/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength23%

Delivery trend +1.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/09/202511th12/137%9%-0.28
19/10/202514th40/10%24%+0.24
18/04/202612th20/10%8%+0.08
30/04/20265th22/10%20%+0.20
17/05/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
12/06/20265th16/116%64%+0.48
07/07/20264th9/276%40%-0.36
28/07/20264th33/10%84%+0.84
30/08/20268th12/137%0%-0.37