3
Dark Cloud Rising
4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 92
Ripon · Ripon Cathedral City Of The Dales Handicap · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
45%
Place Prob
34%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength42%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Thirsk | 3 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Ripon | 2 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Ripon | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Pontefract | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Ripon | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Carlisle | 3 | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength11%
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/12/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 07/04/2026 | 10th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 25/04/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |
| 13/05/2026 | 16th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 18/06/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |
| 03/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 15/08/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 62% | -0.12 |
| 05/09/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 38% | -0.36 |