1
Dark Thirty
6yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 99
Ripon · Ripon Cathedral City Of The Dales Handicap · 6f
#12
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲3
Strength25%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Curragh | BHA100 | 3rd | 13th | −8 |
| 2026-08-19 | York | 2 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Goodwood | 2 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Curragh | BHA97 | 2nd | 11th | −8 |
| 2026-06-27 | Chester | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Ripon | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength93%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/04/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 13/05/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 31/05/2026 | 11th | 6/1 | 68% | 23% | -0.45 |
| 18/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 95% | +0.24 |
| 01/08/2026 | 13th | 12/1 | 37% | 54% | +0.17 |
| 19/08/2026 | 14th | 14/1 | 26% | 35% | +0.09 |
| 13/09/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 91% | +0.65 |