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4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 89

Ripon · Ripon Cathedral City Of The Dales Handicap · 6f

#9

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Better known for 5f exploits but has run well at this trip 2 of last 3 outings, including when fifth of 23 at Ayr on heavy going last week so holds place claims if in same form.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Musselburgh 26/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 78 · 5f1y Goo 133 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 78 par26/044OR 782 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 20th of 21 · OR 83 · 5f Gd 118 · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 83 par4 @ Musselburgh 05/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 81 · 5f1y Gd 136 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 81 par5/064OR 813 @ Redcar 20/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 81 · 5f Gd 121 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 81 par4 @ Beverley 03/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 86 · 5f Goo 140 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 86 par3/074OR 863 @ Pontefract 17/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 89 · 5f3y Goo 135 · below its mark17/07/2026 · OR 89 par2 @ Ripon 15/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 89 · 6f Goo 118 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 89 par15/082OR 892 @ Doncaster 12/09/2026 · Pos 20th of 21 · OR 90 · 5f143y Gd 125 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 90 par2 @ Ayr 19/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 23 · OR 90 · 6f Hvy 133 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 90 par19/092OR 90projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Ayr25th5th0
2026-09-12Doncaster220th20th0
2026-08-15Ripon22nd2nd0
2026-07-17Pontefract36th7th−1
2026-07-03Beverley41st3rd−2
2026-06-20Redcar31st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0420/0615/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/04/20264th3/184%73%-0.11
14/05/202620th28/10%5%+0.05
05/06/20263rd3/184%67%-0.18
20/06/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
03/07/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
17/07/20266th3/184%17%-0.68
15/08/20262nd33/10%92%+0.92
12/09/202620th25/10%5%+0.05
19/09/20265th25/10%82%+0.82