11
U Sure Do
4yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 82
Ripon · Ripon Cathedral City Of The Dales Handicap · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Haydock | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-09-18 | Ayr | 2 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | York | 3 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-08-22 | Chester | 2 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Hamilton | 4 | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ripon | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 05/11/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 18/04/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 11/08/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 55% | -0.17 |
| 22/08/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 06/09/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 18/09/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 74% | +0.27 |
| 25/09/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |