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5

Big Apple Jack

4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 60

Ripon · Michael Raby Memorial Handicap (Div 1) · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Finally got off the mark in a 13-runner handicap at Hamilton 24 days ago, first-time blinkers perhaps adding an edge. Up 3 lb but likely still feasibly treated so could follow up now he's got the hang of things.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Redcar 27/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 63 · 5f217y Goo 135 · below its mark27/10/2025 · OR 63 par27/106OR 636 @ Nottingham 26/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 61 · 6f18y Goo 130 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Southwell 21/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 61 · 6f16y Std 132 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 61 par21/056OR 616 @ Ripon 18/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 60 · 6f Goo 130 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Pontefract 29/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 58 · 6f Goo 140 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 58 par29/066OR 586 @ Doncaster 18/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 58 · 7f6y GF 129 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Southwell 16/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 57 · 6f16y Std 132 · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 57 par16/086OR 576 @ Carlisle 19/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 57 · 6f195y Goo 135 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Hamilton 02/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 57 · 6f6y Sft 127 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 57 par2/096OR 57projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Hamilton61st1st0
2026-08-19Carlisle62nd2nd0
2026-08-16Southwell64th4th0
2026-07-18Doncaster65th5th0
2026-06-29Pontefract62nd2nd0
2026-06-18Ripon64th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/1018/0616/082/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength84%

Delivery trend +4.2% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/10/202510th15/261%25%-0.36
26/04/20262nd6/168%83%+0.15
21/05/20268th9/153%30%-0.23
18/06/20264th17/255%50%-0.05
29/06/20262nd7/282%86%+0.04
18/07/20265th15/261%43%-0.18
16/08/20264th5/174%77%+0.03
19/08/20262nd5/287%88%+0.01
02/09/20261st11/271%100%+0.29