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11

Eldeyaar

7yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 49

Ripon · Michael Raby Memorial Handicap (Div 1) · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

91%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual C&D winner who has run some good races this year, including when second at Catterick earlier in the month, but he may prove vulnerable to younger rivals.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength42%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 09/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 45 · 6f20y Std 126 · beat its mark09/02/2026 · OR 45 par9/026OR 456 @ Southwell 24/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 45 · 6f16y Std 126 · beat its mark24/02/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Wolverhampton 30/03/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 45 · 6f20y Std 147 · beat its mark30/03/2026 · OR 45 par30/036OR 456 @ Thirsk 18/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 17 · OR 45 · 6f Goo 126 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Southwell 30/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 52 · 6f16y Std 122 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 52 par30/046OR 526 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 17 · OR 52 · 6f Goo 127 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Wetherby 04/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 51 · 5f110y Goo 131 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 51 par4/066OR 516 @ Pontefract 26/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 49 · 6f Goo 133 · beat its mark26/07/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Catterick 08/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 48 · 5f212y Goo 124 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 48 par8/096OR 48projClass-projected finish: 6th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Catterick62nd2nd0
2026-07-26Pontefract65th5th0
2026-06-04Wetherby68th8th0
2026-05-16Thirsk63rd3rd0
2026-04-30Southwell63rd3rd0
2026-04-18Thirsk61st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0218/044/068/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength83%

Delivery trend +1.4% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/02/20264th11/142%57%+0.15
24/02/20268th11/142%22%-0.20
30/03/202611th10/147%9%-0.38
18/04/20261st33/10%100%+1.00
30/04/20263rd18/15%67%+0.61
16/05/20263rd10/147%88%+0.40
04/06/20268th4/179%13%-0.66
26/07/20265th15/261%60%-0.01
08/09/20262nd12/137%88%+0.51