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10

Golden Mabel

3yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 54

Ripon · Michael Raby Memorial Handicap (Div 1) · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

40/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Finished well held in previous handicap starts but won when dropped to class 6 for first time at Ffos Las in August over 7f, making all. Now steps down to 6f with hood removed and up against older rivals so may be vulnerable.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength66%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 23/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 1m142y Std 123 · HIGHER CLASS23/0344 @ Haydock 25/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 1m37y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Wolverhampton 05/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 1m142y Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS5/0554 @ Wolverhampton 18/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 55 · 1m142y Std 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 55 par4 @ Chester 30/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 55 · 7f1y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 55 par30/054OR 554 @ Chester 11/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 60 · 7f1y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Wolverhampton 31/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 57 · 1m142y Std 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 57 par31/075OR 575 @ Haydock 08/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 54 · 7f212y Goo 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Ffos Las 21/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 52 · 7f80y Gd 132 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 52 par21/086OR 52projClass-projected finish: 9th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21Ffos Las61st1st0
2026-08-08Haydock56th5th+1
2026-07-31Wolverhampton58th7th+1
2026-07-11Chester46th4th+2
2026-05-30Chester48th6th+2
2026-05-18Wolverhampton47th5th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0318/0531/0721/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength48%

Delivery trend +5.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/03/20268th300/10%22%+0.22
25/04/20268th250/10%0%0.00
05/05/20265th400/10%20%+0.20
18/05/20267th200/10%0%0.00
30/05/20268th250/10%30%+0.30
11/07/20266th200/10%17%+0.17
31/07/20268th150/10%13%+0.13
08/08/20266th50/10%0%0.00
21/08/20261st40/10%100%+1.00