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3

Jet Warrior

4yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 62

Ripon · Michael Raby Memorial Handicap (Div 1) · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

17/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#2

★ Timeform

Commentary

Won over C&D in May but lost his way since leaving Ben Haslam, running poorly in a change of headgear last time. Hard to fancy on recent evidence.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength72%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 6.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newcastle 19/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 7f14y Std 142 · HIGHER CLASS19/0246 @ Thirsk 18/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 17 · OR 54 · 6f Goo 134 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Southwell 07/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 54 · 7f14y Std 134 · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 54 par7/056OR 546 @ Ayr 20/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 54 · 6f GF 129 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Ripon 28/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 54 · 6f Goo 140 · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 54 par28/056OR 546 @ Carlisle 09/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 64 · 5f182y Goo 155 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 64 par5 @ Hamilton 10/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 64 · 6f6y Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 64 par10/065OR 644 @ York 24/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 18 · OR 64 · 7f Goo 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 64 par6 @ Ayr 17/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 63 · 7f50y Sft 137 · below its mark17/09/2026 · OR 63 par17/096OR 63projClass-projected finish: 11th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Ayr611th11th0
2026-07-24York411th9th+2
2026-06-10Hamilton54th3rd+1
2026-06-09Carlisle63rd3rd0
2026-05-28Ripon61st1st0
2026-05-20Ayr61st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0220/0510/0617/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength75%

Delivery trend -1.8% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/02/20265th125/10%0%0.00
18/04/20268th28/10%56%+0.56
07/05/20263rd9/276%80%+0.04
20/05/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
28/05/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
09/06/20263rd7/282%60%-0.22
10/06/20264th5/287%40%-0.47
24/07/202611th20/10%41%+0.41
17/09/202611th22/10%23%+0.23