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8

Run This Way

8yo Mare · 9-6 · OR 57

Ripon · Michael Raby Memorial Handicap (Div 1) · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Twice a winner over C&D in 2024 and ended losing run when scoring twice from lowly marks this May. Largely consistent since but needs to settle better than she did last time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength57%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 18/11/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 53 · 6f Std 133 · beat its mark18/11/2025 · OR 53 par18/116OR 536 @ Newcastle 09/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 51 · 6f Std 131 · beat its mark09/12/2025 · OR 51 par6 @ Thirsk 18/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 17 · OR 49 · 6f Goo 129 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 49 par18/046OR 496 @ Redcar 07/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 48 · 5f217y Goo 128 · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 17 · OR 51 · 6f Goo 126 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 51 par16/056OR 516 @ Nottingham 03/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 58 · 6f18y Goo 133 · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Doncaster 06/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 58 · 6f2y GF 134 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 58 par6/066OR 586 @ Catterick 26/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 58 · 5f212y Goo 135 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Carlisle 09/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 58 · 5f182y Goo 133 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 58 par9/096OR 58projClass-projected finish: 8th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Carlisle66th6th0
2026-08-26Catterick63rd3rd0
2026-06-06Doncaster63rd3rd0
2026-06-03Nottingham64th4th0
2026-05-16Thirsk61st1st0
2026-05-07Redcar61st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/117/056/069/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 6-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength26%

Delivery trend -5.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/11/202511th25/10%23%+0.23
09/12/20258th22/10%36%+0.36
18/04/20267th7/163%63%-0.01
07/05/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
16/05/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
03/06/20264th7/491%63%-0.28
06/06/20263rd4/179%87%+0.08
26/08/20263rd5/287%50%-0.37
09/09/20266th10/147%50%+0.03