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Sole Spirit

4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 65

Ripon · Michael Raby Memorial Handicap (Div 1) · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 3 from 4 starts last year but hasn't stood much racing in his career to date and likely needed run when down field on recent return from 12 months off 26 days ago. Needs to build on that effort but his stable is going well.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength82%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Beverley 14/08/2024 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR - · 5f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS14/0855 @ Beverley 18/09/2024 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 5f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS2 @ Musselburgh 06/11/2024 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 7f15y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS6/1126 @ Doncaster 27/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 56 · 6f2y Goo 126 · beat its mark27/06/2025 · OR 56 par6 @ Thirsk 08/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 59 · 6f Goo 130 · beat its mark08/08/2025 · OR 59 par8/086OR 595 @ Carlisle 20/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 66 · 5f182y GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/08/2025 · OR 66 par5 @ Newcastle 11/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 66 · 6f Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/09/2025 · OR 66 par11/095OR 665 @ Southwell 31/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 67 · 6f16y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 67 par31/085OR 67projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Southwell57th6th+1
2025-09-11Newcastle51st0th+1
2025-08-20Carlisle56th5th+1
2025-08-08Thirsk61st1st0
2025-06-27Doncaster61st1st0
2024-12-19Southwell60

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0827/0611/0931/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength79%

Delivery trend +0.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/08/202410th66/10%10%+0.10
18/09/20246th40/10%38%+0.38
06/11/20248th12/137%22%-0.15
27/06/20251st12/137%100%+0.63
08/08/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
20/08/20256th2/189%17%-0.73
11/09/20251st12/137%100%+0.63
31/08/20267th16/116%45%+0.30