IvyArcIvyArc
7

Triple P

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 60

Ripon · Michael Raby Memorial Handicap (Div 1) · 6f

#8

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Maiden improving gradually with each run, finishing second of 6 at Catterick 18 days ago on his third start. Needs bigger step forward up against older horses on handicap debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength75%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.4 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Redcar 19/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 7f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS19/0754 @ Newcastle 02/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 6f1y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS2/0945 @ Catterick 08/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 5f212y Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS8/095projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Catterick52nd1st+1
2026-09-02Newcastle43rd1st+2
2026-07-19Redcar54th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/072/098/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 3-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -21.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/07/20264th33/10%40%+0.40
02/09/20263rd40/10%78%+0.78
08/09/20262nd10/382%80%-0.02