Dream Deal
7yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 60
Ripon · Michael Raby Memorial Handicap (Div 2) · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Catterick | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Beverley | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-25 | York | 4 | 15th | 13th | +2 |
| 2026-07-20 | Beverley | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Catterick | 4 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-07-07 | Pontefract | 5 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 55% | -0.09 |
| 16/06/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 29/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 15/07/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 20/07/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 25/07/2026 | 15th | 28/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 30/08/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 45% | -0.18 |
| 08/09/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |