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7

Hurstwood

9yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 57

Ripon · Michael Raby Memorial Handicap (Div 2) · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

85%

Place Prob

51%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

This veteran 4-time C&D winner arrives on a hat-trick after doubling up over 6f at Redcar in recent weeks. A further 4 lb rise seems unlikely to prevent another bold bid.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength31%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Thirsk 18/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 17 · OR 55 · 6f Goo 135 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 55 par18/046OR 556 @ Redcar 07/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 54 · 5f217y Goo 134 · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Ripon 28/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 53 · 6f Goo 134 · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 53 par28/056OR 536 @ Doncaster 06/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 52 · 6f2y GF 128 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Thirsk 01/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 18 · OR 50 · 6f Goo 131 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 50 par1/076OR 506 @ Ripon 18/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 48 · 6f Goo 128 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Thirsk 07/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 47 · 6f Goo 135 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 47 par7/086OR 476 @ Redcar 22/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 45 · 5f217y Goo 126 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Redcar 09/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 53 · 5f217y Goo 135 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 53 par9/096OR 53projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Redcar61st1st0
2026-08-22Redcar61st1st0
2026-08-07Thirsk67th7th0
2026-07-18Ripon64th4th0
2026-07-01Thirsk611th11th0
2026-06-06Doncaster66th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/046/067/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/04/20269th22/10%50%+0.50
07/05/20264th15/261%73%+0.12
28/05/20266th5/174%29%-0.45
06/06/20266th20/10%67%+0.67
01/07/202611th7/163%41%-0.22
18/07/20264th14/126%70%+0.44
07/08/20267th11/271%25%-0.46
22/08/20261st20/10%100%+1.00
09/09/20261st6/168%100%+0.32