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Kings Merchant

5yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 65

Ripon · Michael Raby Memorial Handicap (Div 2) · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winner over 7f at Chester (good to firm) in July and 6f at Catterick (good) this month. Held on gamely at latter and his 2 lb rise is offset by Conor Whiteley's claim.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength70%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 01/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 67 · 6f Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 67 par1/055OR 676 @ Catterick 11/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 65 · 7f6y Gd 140 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 65 par6 @ Carlisle 29/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 64 · 6f195y Goo 134 · below its mark29/05/2026 · OR 64 par29/056OR 645 @ Thirsk 16/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 63 · 6f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 63 par6 @ Doncaster 03/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 61 · 6f2y GF 138 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 61 par3/076OR 615 @ Chester 10/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 61 · 7f1y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Catterick 22/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 64 · 7f6y GF 139 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 64 par22/076OR 646 @ Thirsk 01/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 64 · 6f Goo 138 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 64 par6 @ Catterick 08/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 63 · 5f212y Goo 139 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 63 par8/096OR 63projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Catterick61st1st0
2026-08-01Thirsk65th5th0
2026-07-22Catterick64th4th0
2026-07-10Chester51st0th+1
2026-07-03Doncaster62nd2nd0
2026-06-16Thirsk58th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0516/0622/078/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength88%

Delivery trend +1.7% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/05/20266th11/271%55%-0.17
11/05/20264th13/266%75%+0.09
29/05/20267th10/382%14%-0.68
16/06/20268th25/10%30%+0.30
03/07/20262nd8/158%88%+0.30
10/07/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
22/07/20264th11/271%57%-0.14
01/08/20265th9/276%50%-0.26
08/09/20261st7/491%100%+0.09