Uncertainty
3yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 58
Ripon · Michael Raby Memorial Handicap (Div 2) · 6f
#10
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 6.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Pontefract | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-09-09 | Redcar | 6 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Newcastle | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Doncaster | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Thirsk | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Ripon | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 92% | +0.34 |
| 20/11/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/05/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/05/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 05/06/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 14/06/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 31/07/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 09/09/2026 | 14th | 25/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 17/09/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |