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Valentine Catcher

5yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 62

Ripon · Michael Raby Memorial Handicap (Div 2) · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Enduring a lengthy barren spell but has been knocking on the door of late, including third of 11 at Leicester (6f, good) 18 days ago. Handily drawn and likely to be on the premises again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength71%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Pontefract 21/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 67 · 6f Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 67 par21/045OR 675 @ Doncaster 02/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 66 · 7f6y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Ayr 20/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 64 · 7f50y GF 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 64 par20/055OR 646 @ Carlisle 29/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 64 · 6f195y Goo 134 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 64 par6 @ Redcar 19/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 64 · 7f Gd 134 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 64 par19/066OR 645 @ Doncaster 03/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 63 · 7f213y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Carlisle 11/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 62 · 5f182y Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 62 par11/085OR 626 @ Hamilton 02/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 62 · 6f6y Sft 132 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 62 par5 @ Leicester 08/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 62 · 6f GS 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 62 par8/095OR 62projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Leicester53rd2nd+1
2026-09-02Hamilton63rd3rd0
2026-08-11Carlisle52nd1st+1
2026-07-03Doncaster57th6th+1
2026-06-19Redcar69th9th0
2026-05-29Carlisle63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0429/0511/088/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength98%

Delivery trend +0.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/04/20262nd4/179%86%+0.07
02/05/20266th16/116%44%+0.29
20/05/20264th6/168%63%-0.06
29/05/20263rd4/179%75%-0.04
19/06/20269th14/126%38%+0.12
03/07/20267th22/10%14%+0.14
11/08/20262nd12/137%86%+0.49
02/09/20263rd7/282%83%+0.02
08/09/20263rd3/184%80%-0.04