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8

Koala Rose

3yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 77

Ripon · Jozef White Last Day Of Freedom Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 10y

#1

Rank

Odds

1/1

Win Prob

86%

Place Prob

70%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fairly useful maiden. Didn't fully convince with her stamina for 2m when third of 5 in handicap at Newmarket (good to firm) 51 days ago. Considered back down in trip for a leading stable with a good record in this race.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 2.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 3
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Wolverhampton 20/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 1m1f104y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS20/1222 @ Newmarket 16/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 1m4f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS16/0523 @ Goodwood 19/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 1m6f Goo 12219/0634 @ Newbury 17/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR 78 · 1m5f61y GF 131 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 78 par17/074OR 784 @ Newmarket 06/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 78 · 2m GF 125 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 78 par6/084OR 78projClass-projected finish: 4th of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-06Newmarket43rd4th−1
2026-07-17Newbury42nd3rd−1
2026-06-19Goodwood32nd2nd0
2026-05-16Newmarket23rd2nd+1
2025-12-20Wolverhampton23rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/1216/0519/0617/076/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength45%

Delivery trend -8.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/12/20253rd11/893%75%-0.18
16/05/20263rd11/142%50%+0.08
19/06/20262nd6/594%89%-0.05
17/07/20262nd7/491%50%-0.41
06/08/20263rd9/488%50%-0.38