6

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3yo Gelding · 9-4

Ripon · Jozef White Last Day Of Freedom Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 10y

#3

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Nathaniel gelding who shaped well when best of the rest behind a promising filly from the Karl Burke yard on his 11f Carlisle debut (good to soft) 17 days ago. Leading claims with improvement likely.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 3
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Carlisle 09/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 1m3f39y Goo 1339/093
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Carlisle32nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 50%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/09/20262nd80/10%91%+0.91