10
Walking On Stars
3yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 79
Ripon · Jozef White Last Day Of Freedom Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 10y
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
14%
Place Prob
28%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Southwell | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Lingfield | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Southwell | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength66%
Delivery trend -16.1% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 64% | +0.58 |
| 30/07/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 03/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |