5
Gibside
7yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 68
Ripon · Thank You To Our Groundstaff Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 2m
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength48%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Carlisle | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Thirsk | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | York | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Catterick | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Thirsk | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Hamilton | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength49%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 25/04/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 08/05/2026 | 14th | 40/1 | 0% | 19% | +0.19 |
| 17/05/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 31/05/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 11/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 27/06/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 11/08/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |