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Sax Appeal

6yo Gelding · 10-4 · OR 82

Ripon · Thank You To Our Groundstaff Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 2m

#2

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Best form has come on all-weather, where he's been successful 8 times. Went off too hard on the back of a quick turnaround at Southwell in July but ran much better following a 9-week break when fourth of 7 at Musselburgh (2¼m) 14 days ago. Blinkers back on.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength70%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Wolverhampton 13/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 90 · 1m5f219y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/03/2026 · OR 90 par13/033OR 902 @ Newcastle 03/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 89 · 2m56y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 89 par3 @ Beverley 15/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 88 · 2m32y Goo 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 88 par15/043OR 882 @ Chester 08/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 17 · OR 88 · 2m2f140y Goo 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 88 par3 @ Goodwood 22/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 87 · 2m Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/05/2026 · OR 87 par22/053OR 874 @ Pontefract 21/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 86 · 2m2f2y Goo 136 · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 86 par2 @ Newcastle 27/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 20 · OR 86 · 2m56y Sta 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 86 par27/062OR 863 @ Southwell 05/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 88 · 2m102y Std 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 88 par4 @ Musselburgh 12/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 84 · 2m2f28y Goo 142 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 84 par12/094OR 84projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Musselburgh44th4th0
2026-07-05Southwell33rd2nd+1
2026-06-27Newcastle23rd1st+2
2026-06-21Pontefract43rd3rd0
2026-05-22Goodwood35th4th+1
2026-05-08Chester26th4th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/038/0527/0612/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/03/20263rd4/179%50%-0.29
03/04/20268th33/10%36%+0.36
15/04/20263rd7/282%50%-0.32
08/05/20266th22/10%69%+0.69
22/05/20265th10/147%0%-0.47
21/06/20263rd9/276%50%-0.26
27/06/20263rd22/10%89%+0.89
05/07/20263rd11/486%50%-0.36
12/09/20264th16/116%50%+0.34