Tarbat Ness
7yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 72
Ripon · Thank You To Our Groundstaff Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 2m
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Newcastle | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-14 | Newmarket | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | York | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Carlisle | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Kempton | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ascot | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 03/04/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 25/04/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 08/05/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 10/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 24/07/2026 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 14/08/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 60% | +0.55 |
| 03/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |