4
Zimmerman
7yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 71
Ripon · Thank You To Our Groundstaff Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 2m
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
88%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength27%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Chester | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-09-08 | Catterick | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-09-04 | Haydock | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-09-01 | Ripon | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-08 | Pontefract | 6 | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-05-21 | Musselburgh | 6 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength88%
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 53% | +0.01 |
| 25/04/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 11/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 21/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 08/06/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 55% | -0.19 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 04/09/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 08/09/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 19/09/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |