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8

Caldera

4yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 104

Santa Anita · Race 8 - Goodwood Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 1f

#6

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲5
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 2.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: -4.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Churchill Downs 01/11/2024 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 6f Fas 1191/11C6C6 @ Oaklawn Park 13/12/2024 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 87 · 1m110y Fas 120 · below its mark13/12/2024 · OR 87 parC6 @ Oaklawn Park 17/01/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 90 · 1m110y Fas 117 · beat its mark17/01/2025 · OR 90 par17/01C6OR 90BHA92 @ Sunland Park 16/02/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 92 · 1m110y Fas 123 · below its mark16/02/2025 · OR 92 parC0 @ Fair Grounds 22/03/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 97 · 1m1f110y Fas 122 · beat its mark22/03/2025 · OR 97 par22/03C?OR 97C5 @ Oaklawn Park 19/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 93 · 1m1f Fas 118 · below its mark19/04/2025 · OR 93 parC6 @ Gulfstream 30/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 87 · 1m Fas 126 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 87 par30/04C6OR 87C6 @ Colonial Downs 25/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 88 · 1m 124 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 88 parC6 @ Colonial Downs 20/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 99 · 1m 124 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 99 par20/08C6OR 99projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-20Colonial Downs?1st7th−5
2026-06-25Colonial Downs?1st7th−5
2026-04-30Gulfstream?1st7th−5
2025-04-19Oaklawn Park?2nd7th−4
2025-03-22Fair Grounds?8th8th−0
2025-02-16Sunland ParkBHA922nd13th−9

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/1116/0230/0420/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength78%

Delivery trend +1.9% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/11/20246th7/282%55%-0.27
13/12/20242nd11/893%83%-0.09
17/01/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
16/02/20252nd9/276%86%+0.09
22/03/20258th7/163%22%-0.41
19/04/20252nd3/184%80%-0.04
30/04/20261st8/1597%100%+0.03
25/06/20261st8/1196%100%+0.04
20/08/20261st2/799%100%+0.02