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7

Forged Steel

4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 101

Santa Anita · Race 8 - Goodwood Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 1f

#9

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.8
Today:
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Kentucky Downs 06/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 100 · 1m Gd 118 · below its mark06/09/2025 · OR 100 par6/09C5OR 100C5 @ Belmont At The Big A 19/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 101 · 6f Fm 120 · below its mark19/10/2025 · OR 101 parC6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 17/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 105 · 1m110y Fm 119 · below its mark17/01/2026 · OR 105 par17/01C6OR 105C6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 06/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 106 · 1m39y 119 · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 106 parC5 @ Oaklawn Park 28/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 105 · 1m4f Fas 117 · below its mark28/03/2026 · OR 105 par28/03C5OR 105C6 @ Oaklawn Park 02/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 102 · 1m 124 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 102 parC0 @ Santa Anita 25/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 110 · 1m2f Fas 122 · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 110 par25/05C?OR 110C0 @ Saratoga 04/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 110 · 1m2f Fas 124 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 110 parC0 @ Del Mar 23/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 111 · 1m2f Fas 124 · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 111 par23/08C?OR 111projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-23Del Mar?7th7th0
2026-07-04Saratoga?5th5th−0
2026-05-25Santa Anita?1st1st−0
2026-05-02Oaklawn Park?1st7th−5
2026-03-28Oaklawn Park?3rd8th−4
2026-02-06Tampa Bay Downs?1st7th−5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/096/0225/0523/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength86%

Delivery trend +1.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/09/20256th33/10%62%+0.62
19/10/20255th8/158%50%-0.08
17/01/20268th5/287%30%-0.57
06/02/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
28/03/20263rd11/486%60%-0.26
02/05/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
25/05/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
04/07/20265th13/266%60%-0.06
23/08/20267th20/10%40%+0.40