5
Midnight Mammoth
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 100
Santa Anita · Race 8 - Goodwood Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 1f
#3
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲4
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.9
Today:
Class gap: -3.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 9th | −5 |
| 2026-07-26 | Del Mar | ? | 8th | 14th | −5 |
| 2026-07-05 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 2nd | 10th | −6 |
| 2026-03-08 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-01-16 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 26/05/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 31/08/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 16/01/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 31/01/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 08/03/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 05/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 26/07/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |