9
Nevada Beach
4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 112
Santa Anita · Race 8 - Goodwood Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 1f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/5
Win Prob
92%
Place Prob
73%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 2.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.9
Today:
Class gap: -2.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-28 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2025-11-23 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Del Mar | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-06-28 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | BHA113 | 1st | 14th | −11 |
| 2025-06-08 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 08/06/2025 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 67% | -0.29 |
| 28/06/2025 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 28/09/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 01/11/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 23/11/2025 | 1st | 2/9 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 28/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |