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4

Original Sin

4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 106

Santa Anita · Race 8 - Goodwood Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 1f

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲3
Strength9%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.9
Today:
Class gap: -2.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Oaklawn Park 13/12/2024 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 82 · 1m110y Fas 120 · below its mark13/12/2024 · OR 82 par13/12C6OR 82C6 @ Churchill Downs 30/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 82 · 1m 120 · beat its mark30/10/2025 · OR 82 parC5 @ Churchill Downs 30/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 90 · 1m 120 · beat its mark30/11/2025 · OR 90 par30/11C5OR 90C5 @ Fair Grounds 22/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 93 · 1m110y 120 · beat its mark22/01/2026 · OR 93 parC6 @ Fair Grounds 19/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 99 · 1m110y 122 · below its mark19/02/2026 · OR 99 par19/02C6OR 99C6 @ Keeneland 11/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 100 · 1m1f 118 · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 100 parC1 @ Churchill Downs 30/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 105 · 1m1f Fas 118 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 105 par30/05C1OR 105C0 @ Saratoga 04/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 102 · 1m2f Fas 122 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 102 parC0 @ Del Mar 23/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 103 · 1m2f Fas 124 · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 103 par23/08C?OR 103projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-23Del Mar?2nd2nd0
2026-07-04Saratoga?9th9th−0
2026-05-30Churchill Downs?1st2nd−0
2026-04-11Keeneland?1st7th−5
2026-02-19Fair Grounds?6th12th−5
2026-01-22Fair Grounds?1st7th−5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/1222/0130/0523/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/12/20243rd7/282%67%-0.15
30/10/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
30/11/20253rd11/271%80%+0.09
22/01/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
19/02/20266th2/189%17%-0.73
11/04/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
30/05/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
04/07/20269th14/126%20%-0.06
23/08/20262nd16/116%90%+0.74