Miguelito

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 58

Santa Anita · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼1

Strength44%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.7

Today:

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-05	Del Mar	?	7th	4th	+3	6.0
2026-08-03	Del Mar	?	8th	8th	0	2.0
2026-06-15	Santa Anita	?	4th	4th	0	6.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 5-10 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▼

Strength15%

Delivery trend -8.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
15/06/2026	4th	25/1	0%	50%	+0.50
03/08/2026	8th	40/1	0%	13%	+0.13
05/09/2026	7th	50/1	0%	33%	+0.33