Rowdybarfight

3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 69

Santa Anita · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

#10

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength15%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 9.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-04	Del Mar	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-08-09	Del Mar	?	9th	9th	0	1.0
2026-07-06	Los Alamitos Racecourse	?	11th	8th	+3	2.0
2026-05-26	Santa Anita	?	11th	8th	+3	2.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▲

Strength60%

Delivery trend +17.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
26/05/2026	11th	40/1	0%	0%	0.00
06/07/2026	11th	33/1	0%	0%	0.00
09/08/2026	9th	50/1	0%	20%	+0.20
04/09/2026	5th	33/1	0%	50%	+0.50