5
Irish Aces
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 117
Santa Anita · Race 3 - City Of Hope Mile Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 12th | −5 |
| 2025-04-08 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2025-03-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2025-02-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength51%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/2024 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 07/09/2024 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 38% | -0.41 |
| 19/10/2024 | 2nd | 8/13 | 97% | 89% | -0.08 |
| 01/02/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 01/03/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 08/04/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 19/06/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 38% | -0.39 |
| 19/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 15/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |