5
Captain Shreve
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 97
Santa Anita · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-04-04 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Santa Anita | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-01-31 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-12-28 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 5-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 31/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 07/03/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 38% | -0.20 |
| 04/04/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 21/08/2026 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |