4
Clouseau
6yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 112
Santa Anita · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
96%
Place Prob
81%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-31 | Del Mar | BHA110 | 4th | 11th | −6 |
| 2025-10-06 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-07 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength97%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 24/05/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 03/08/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 07/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 06/10/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 31/10/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 70% | +0.23 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 23/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |