3
Duke Silver
3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 106
Santa Anita · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Del Mar | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Del Mar | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength1%
Delivery trend -7.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 04/04/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 07/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 02/08/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 30/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |