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Liam Smith

3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 112

Santa Anita · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

1/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

16%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 2.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Santa Anita 28/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 6f110y Fas 12228/12C6C7 @ Santa Anita 23/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 87 · 6f110y Fas 121 · beat its mark23/01/2026 · OR 87 par23/01C7OR 87C7 @ Santa Anita 06/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 94 · 6f110y Fas 122 · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 94 par6/02C7OR 94C7 @ Del Mar 31/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 104 · 5f Fm 118 · below its mark31/07/2026 · OR 104 par31/07C7OR 104C8 @ Del Mar 27/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 108 · 6f110y Fas 120 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 108 par27/08C8OR 108projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27Del Mar?1st3rd−2
2026-07-31Del Mar?3rd4th−1
2026-02-06Santa Anita?1st2nd−1
2026-01-23Santa Anita?1st2nd−1
2025-12-28Santa Anita?6th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/1223/016/0231/0727/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength84%

Delivery trend -1.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/12/20256th16/116%0%-0.16
23/01/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
06/02/20261st5/696%100%+0.04
31/07/20263rd7/491%50%-0.41
27/08/20261st4/696%100%+0.04