4
Amorita
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 109
Santa Anita · Race 5 - Eddie D Stakes - Grade 2 · 6f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.2
Today:
Class gap: -2.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | 9th | −4 |
| 2026-07-26 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 9th | −4 |
| 2026-04-05 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 9th | −4 |
| 2025-07-20 | Del Mar | ? | 9th | 11th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength16%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 23/03/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 27/04/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 20/07/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/02/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 05/04/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 17/05/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |
| 26/07/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 06/09/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |