8
First Peace
6yo Horse · 8-10 · OR 118
Santa Anita · Race 5 - Eddie D Stakes - Grade 2 · 6f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.4
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 9th | −5 |
| 2026-07-20 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-06-13 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Santa Anita | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Del Mar | ? | 11th | 14th | −3 |
| 2024-09-28 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength45%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06/2024 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 22/07/2024 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 01/09/2024 | 6th | 13/8 | 91% | 44% | -0.47 |
| 28/09/2024 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 31/08/2025 | 11th | 7/1 | 63% | 9% | -0.54 |
| 27/09/2025 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 14% | -0.70 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 23/08/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 82% | -0.02 |