5
Nesso's Lastharrah
5yo Horse · 8-10 · OR 113
Santa Anita · Race 5 - Eddie D Stakes - Grade 2 · 6f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲4
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.9
Today:
Class gap: -3.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-07-19 | Del Mar | ? | 6th | 12th | −5 |
| 2026-06-13 | Santa Anita | ? | 10th | 10th | −0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-02-27 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 10th | −5 |
| 2025-12-28 | Santa Anita | ? | 11th | 11th | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength47%
Delivery trend +9.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 27/09/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 19/10/2025 | 6th | 13/8 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 28/12/2025 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/02/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 04/04/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 13/06/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 10% | -0.27 |
| 19/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 29/08/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |