1
Sumter
7yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 117
Santa Anita · Race 5 - Eddie D Stakes - Grade 2 · 6f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength19%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-07-19 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-06-13 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 9th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength63%
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 29/11/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |
| 29/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 08/02/2026 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 14/03/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 18/04/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 90% | +0.11 |
| 19/07/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 22/08/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |